Summer Stat Check-In

We are officially in the dog days of summer, a time traditionally considerably slower in the Sarasota-area real estate market, and Summer 2023 is proving to be no exception. It is easy - in our fast-paced, go-go-go society - to look at statistics in a vacuum or without all the context necessary to tell the whole story. And while short-term stats are helpful to some degree, pulling back and looking at this moment in time in relation to more long-term recent history gives the fuller picture of where are market is and may be going.

The Sun or Just a Bubble? Perspective Matters.

(What kind of bubble is that though? Weird mountain bubble, but you get the point - you have to zoom out to realize it's not the sun!) Given that the past few years have had quite a number of unusual variables (pandemic, working from home, flight from both the north and big cities as a result of both, etc.), we thought it would help to look at some very important data points with both short-term and long-term glasses on. So let's dive in to this 90-degree-summer-heat pool of info by doing a year-over-year versus a year-over-5-years-ago comparison.

The following statistics are for all price points with a Sarasota address in June 2023, 2022, and 2018.

Inventory and Sales

Available inventory on the Sarasota housing market has been a hot topic over the past few years, given how little there was in relation to the very high demand. And now remains is a topic because It is way up! There's so much on the market! It's a buyers' market all the way!

But take a breath, because it is actually a very stable, neutral market, and for summer, it honestly is pretty darn good.

Not the Whole Story: 2022 V. 2023

Knee-jerk reactions if you only look at the short term:

Inventory is historically high
Sales are down from last summer

Zoom Out to Get the Full Picture

Rational reactions when you get the whole story:

Inventory is historically down, and here you can see how Q1 2021-Q2 2022 were very clearly an anomaly.
Number of sales remain historically high, especially for summer.

The graph below very clearly shows how important it is to zoom out on these statistics in order to get the real story of trends and norms. This is the months of inventory available (the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory = months of inventory), a 15-month and a 5-year comparison. When you look at the second graph, you see that we still have very low inventory relative to recent history. Sales are actually down 12% over both the short- and long-term, but as you can see, those sales are coming from a far smaller pool of available inventory than normal.

Average Sale Price

With the tumult of the market since 2020, it is easy to see how expectations got so out of whack for those buying or selling over the past few years. Sellers were especially vulnerable to inflated expectations due to the run-on-the-bank vibe that was happening for a solid 18-24 months, so while the comedown might feel harsh, it really just represents a return to normalcy. So let the high of 2020-2022 wear off and come back to the real world of having to actually do something to sell your house.

Here's what the stats say:

Short Term: Pretty Stable?

Not much to say here everything looks pretty stable, doesn't it? Asking prices have come down clearly but who knows what was happening before 4/22! Sales prices here seem to be hovering around $700K with only a bit of variation.

Long Term: Sold Price is Way Up

Wow, this graph tells us so. much. more. Not only do we see that the sales price looks not only healthy but spectacular over time (despite some expected peaks and valleys), but look at how the list prices responded to the [disproportionately smaller] bump in sales price 3-6 months before. It is fascinating to see so clearly how expectations were altered from a few inflated months!

Stat Summary

Seasoned Professionals Know the Difference

Someone without years of experience will be operating from a different frame of mind, viewing this summer activity as a slowdown, or even an alarming decline, compared to recent years. Those of us who have been around the market for longer realize that we are still in a very healthy place, as well as have the experience to know how to operate in a more balanced market. We've lived through the recession, recovery, pandemic, boom, and now back to this neutral state. No panic here! Different markets require Realtors to adjust themselves just like it requires buyers and sellers to adjust their expectations. A balanced market should not scare you and it definitely does not scare us!